Timing and Timers

Timing and Timers

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Somewhere in Iraq, or possibly even in Lebanon, or both countries, there could be a massive high-explosive conventional bomb under construction. Now this bomb is no ordinary bomb. This bomb will have to be delivered to its target using a specially-prepared vehicle because the weight of the bomb itself is so heavy that it will require special engineering in order for a vehicle to carry it. The vehicle’s shocks and springs will have to be reinforced because ordinary shocks and springs would buckle under the weight of the massive bomb. Islamic fundamentalist terrorists are some of the most proficient bomb-makers in the world, so you just have to sit back and ponder just how big this massive bomb that they are building really is and what type of vehicle they will use to deliver it.

Islamic terrorists tried to blow up a predetermined structure inside the Green Zone in Baghdad on one occasion by building a very large bomb and loading it inside a cement mixer truck. When folks saw the cement mixer truck drive past them and the bail of the truck was not spinning, that was a pretty strong indicator that there was a massive bomb inside it. Cement mixer trucks generally do not operate without the bail spinning because the concrete mix that they carry has to continuously be spun in the bail with water to prevent it from forming inside the bail. If water is not spun in the bail as the cement mixer truck hauls its concrete load, the concrete will form and then the bail will have to be saved through many arduous hours of using pneumatic tools to clean the concrete out.

The cement mixer truck that was hauling the bomb through Baghdad, thankfully, got caught up in concertina wire as it approached the Green Zone. Concertina wire is very effective against wheeled vehicles because it can deflate rubber tires. When the cement mixer suicide bomber became trapped by the concertina wire outside the Green Zone and realized that he could no longer reach the target, the suicide bomber detonated the bomb anyway because he was on an Islamic suicide mission.

Lately there has been a sharp increase in car bombings in Iraq and these attacks have been attributed to Sunni vs. Shiite separatist groups seeking strategic advantage over each other. Both sides plan their attacks upon unsuspecting civilians to maximize collateral damage. Open-air markets where Iraqi citizens are out shopping to buy vegetables and other goods and services are prime target areas for jihadists using car bombs. The car bomb is delivered at the peak of the shopping day. Other car bombs have targeted Iraqis that have gathered together just to find employment because those Iraqi citizens were unemployed. Car bombs then are very effective weapons used by terrorist groups and others to kill and maim their opponents in very large numbers.

Now, when you mix hostile foreign nation-states in with that terrorist capability, you begin to recognize that car bombs could be used to try and change the outcome of American policy in the Middle East. Car bombs and truck bombs have been used against the United States and our interests by Islamic terrorists before in places like Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Tanzania, Lebanon and elsewhere. Car and truck bombs create tremendous amounts of damage to critical infrastructure and anyone nearby the explosions derived by such bombs are generally casualties that need immediate long-term health care if they survive such attacks. In this operational setting, hostile states want a clean break from the United States and in the past truck bombs and car bombs have been used to shock the conscience of the American people.

For some time I have been piecing together a timeline that I believe that al Qai’da and other terrorist organizations allied with Usama Bin Ladin and his group have been working toward to renew attacks against the United States. After the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, al Qai’da found that it was not in their best interests to attack America again because Usama Bin Ladin did not want a fully mobilized America seeking his terrorist organization out over the long term. The terrorist attacks upon the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were certain to shock the American public, but domestic American politics and the internal divisions that exist in the United States between blue states and red states keep the American people from unifying against terrorism. What makes this situation even more precarious is the fact that some European nation-states have abandoned and become hostile to any political ideology other than leftism, so there has been a lessening of cooperation between political classes in the west in regards to security.

The objectives of the terrorists and the hostile nation-states that sponsor them are very clear strategically. Al Qai’da attacked the United States, knew that the US would pursue them with military forces around the world and al Qai’da also knew from history that America would seek to create alliances with other nation-states to do it as we did when we went after Saddam Hussein in 1991. Fundamentalist Islamic states then allowed the insertion of US forces into Iraq and elsewhere in the War on Terrorism and began insurgency operations against the American military on the ground. This was done because of the lessons-learned from Vietnam and how the American people do not have the patience to fight a very long war, especially a war that is lengthy and confusing at the same time. The international leftist media explained this war against terror as a war against individuals and groups instead of between nation-states. It is understandable that the average citizen in the west would be confused about the War on Terrorism and may think that the only way to fight it is with a limited response and not through a direct application of military power by the United States and our allies. The media has bombarded the American people with messages that the War on Terrorism is not as severe as it is being portrayed by government. Media claims that there have not been any attacks upon the United States since September 11, 2001, so there is no justification for the United States to continue its war in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere to hunt terrorist organizations down and dismantle them.

That is exactly what the terrorists want and media is feeding directly into the terrorist battle plan. The hostile nation-states that enable terrorists want the American people to turn the war off. Fundamentalist terrorist organizations do not want the American people united in the War on Terrorism. Terrorist organizations want disunity in the west and so far the terrorists and the hostile nation-states that support them have achieved that outcome. The American people are calling for a withdrawal from Iraq, the media is calling for a withdrawal from Iraq and even the so-called bipartisan Iraq Study Group has called for a withdrawal from Iraq. These outcomes are exactly what fundamentalist terrorists want to occur.

Inserted into the withdrawal timeline however, stands the Bush Administration and Tony Blair’s government in Great Britain. President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair see the greater danger posed by terrorist organizations and the nation-states that sponsor them. With Syria posed to retake Lebanon and Iran certain to acquire nuclear weapons if the west leaves Iraq and Afghanistan, the War on Terrorism is now reaching a pivotal moment in time, an operational apex that I call a “critical timeline event”.

The terrorists and their nation-state sponsors have duped the leftist western media into believing that the American people are now safe from terrorist attacks, the terrorists have nearly broken the will of the American people to resist and conduct the long war against terrorism, the terrorists have used every means and method to degrade the US military in terms of casualties to US personnel and equipment, and the terrorists have spread their jihad to the four corners of the globe. All the terrorists and the nation-states that sponsor them need now is a withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq and Afghanistan to make desired strategic gains against the west and hold them. Only President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair stand in their way.

Now somewhere out there is another cement mixer bomb that the jihadists have constructed just for this critical moment in time when the American people went down to the voting booth to turn off the War on Terrorism. The jihadists have to be planning it. The jihadists believe that the only individuals that remain to be convinced that the war against them is futile are President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair. The jihadists are still celebrating the American midterm elections and believe that the American people have already surrendered to their will. There are just two more men in the west to convince.

When President Bush issues his recommendations and decisions on Iraq after the holidays, it will be the critical timeline event that will trigger jihadi action. Should President Bush decide to continue the war in Iraq, the jihadists will then seek one massive strike of some type against American forces in Iraq, something that will be played over and over on the leftist international media and into the living rooms of the American people. With the sheer number of car bombs being used in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq by competing factions, somewhere in Iraq al Qai’da must be building a massive bomb to be used when President Bush announces American intentions in the region. The jihadists are waiting to see if President Bush follows the will of the American voters that have been confused by the media and jihadi propaganda. Should Bush decide that America will stay in Iraq and even go after the Iranian nuclear program, you can expect the jihadists to respond with a spectacular attack of some type to energize the American people even more into retreating from the War on Terrorism.

Force protection during this period is critical. The jihadists in Iraq have had years to study how the American military does business there. They have studied the security weaknesses and the jihadists want to hit a home run if Bush announces that America will stay in Iraq to face fundamentalist Islam and help the newly elected Iraqi government.

If America decides to stay in Iraq and finish the job, which we must, you can expect fundamentalist Islam to attempt to deliver a massive strike against US interests to tip the scales of public opinion once and for all in favor of retreat.

It’s all about timing and timers.

Christopher Farmer

MS, National Security

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