Integrated Attacks

Integrated Attacks

Friday, December 1, 2006

The US dollar has taken a pummeling on the currency markets recently as the media tells us that it is nothing to worry about and simply an indication of traditional market adjustments that will level out like they always have and then the dollar’s trading strength on Forex will be back to business as usual. The media has forgotten the odd-even number license plate days in the 1970s when OPEC started its oil war against this country and crippled our economy in response to US intervention in the Middle East.

The American economy is a floating web of interchanging variables that are interconnected with foreign investment markets. The US plan for globalization has basically been one where we have outsourced our manufacturing base to countries in Asia and other areas of the world and converted our economy into a service-based economy. Since service-based economies only export a fraction of that which manufacturing-based economies export, the United States imports far more than it exports to countries that are selling their tangible goods on American markets.

Foreign manufacturing economies over time build large positive deficits with the United States. Countries such as China for example, export vast amounts of tangible goods to the United States and import few tangible goods in return. This creates what is known as a trade deficit, and countries with large positive trade deficits with the United States then take those huge profits in US dollars and invest those dollars on Forex and in other investment instruments.

The Chinese stake in US dollars is estimated to be $1.3 trillion dollars. This means that China has hedged all of its bets by sticking with the US dollar on Forex and other investment mediums, and with the trade deficit between China and the United States continuing to expand exponentially in China’s favor, Chinese dollar reserves are only going to get much larger—that is if China decides to keep its vast reserves of US dollars and not dump them on the foreign currency markets causing the US dollar to lose up to 50% of its current value.

The War in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus US intervention in the Middle East diplomatically in other states such as Lebanon and the State of Israel, has many enemies of the United States looking for ways to remove us from the region and prevent US intervention in the future as totalitarian regimes such as Iran remake the global order in the coming decade. Not short of allies in this preemptive thinking, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is also an integral member of removing the United States from global interdiction of US national security interests. The only way for US competitors to do this would be to make it too costly for the United States to deploy its military forces around the world, especially the feared US Navy and its aircraft carrier battle-groups.

Deep devaluations in US currency could help achieve this agenda if it is combined with a steep increase in the price of oil. OPEC achieved this in the late 1970s when they created an oil crisis in the United States. This time they may be wanting to take it a step further by marginalizing US currency values and combining that market effect with decreases in oil production—a measure that will cripple the US economy if successful.

The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to take it a step further. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad knows that if he can force the United States to retreat from the Middle East then a direct attack upon US currency markets would greatly seal our fate. The pending coup in Lebanon, Syrian and Iranian involvement in Iraq against the United States and coalition forces—these are all perfectly timed events to capture the Middle East from America and the west for decades to come. Should OPEC then deliver a crushing blow by reducing its oil output and if China and other Asian countries dump US dollars because they will fear an economic backlash against the United States and American currency devaluations, the result could be a devastating blow to the US economy and the removal of the US military from the global stage, opening up the world to the plans and devices of totalitarian forces. In other words, you could expect many more Darfur-type activities to appear based upon theocratic Trotskyite aggression, and the United States would have little flexibility to do anything about them. The United States would lose its capability to confront moral evil in the world and fundamentalist Islam will operate without restriction all over the globe within an Iranian and Pakistani nuclear umbrella.

Remarkably, this scenario could even be more dangerous for the United States than it appears if other events unfold. For example, if President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is reelected on December 3, 2006, for another term as president, Chavez will rewrite the written constitution of Venezuela to make himself dictator over the Venezuelan people. Chavez will then align himself even more with the other new Marxist leaders of Central and South America such as President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, and dismantle US trade agreements in the hemisphere. That, however, is part of the final step of Chavez’s plan.

Chavez and leaders such as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran want to cripple the United States in terms of our ability to wage war against hostile states. These men want the US Navy to rust at port as the Russian Navy rusts at port because Russia can no longer afford to maintain, let alone deploy those forces. The most efficient method to achieve this would be to remove the US dollar as the currency of choice for global oil purchases. If oil-producing countries replace the US dollar as the currency-standard for oil purchases, the price of the dollar will plummet because it will no longer be backed by oil, and replaced with a new currency vehicle such as the Euro. Should the United States retreat from the Middle East without securing viable partners there in foreign governments and surrenders to fundamentalist Islam, OPEC could then restrict its production and at the same time remove the US dollar as the official oil trading currency on global markets.

This scenario would be catastrophic for US national security. If OPEC reduces oil output and the US dollar is replaced as the currency for oil trading, combined with a hasty selling of US dollar reserves from countries such as China, Taiwan and Japan, it could crush the US economy, remove the United States militarily from the world, and in a very brief period of time remake the global order.

Anti-Israeli European interests would celebrate such a move, and European socialists would celebrate a rise in the Euro and massive accumulation of Euros by foreign states so as to greatly finance an expansion of their socialist programs. It would be a socialist’s dream if this were to occur. Europe would use the money not to provide global security, but for internal state measures that would benefit the European Union only and the anti-American forces in Europe would also be able to isolate the United States from the global stage at the same time.

Concessions to radical Islam would follow from Europe because states such as Iran would not want any disruptions in European currency markets since heavy investments in those markets would appear once this process was set into motion. One of the European concessions to radical Islam would more than likely be the handing over of the State of Israel to Islamic forces in pursuit of what will be defined by the leftist media as a “lasting peace”. What will occur then will be the exact opposite of how the United States views the world and an opposing view of our national security posture. The United States expends considerable resources defending democracies such as the State of Israel from attack by totalitarian states. European aid to the Palestinians under such an arrangement would greatly multiply and then calls to dismantle the State of Israel would follow under the guise of conflict resolution. Since Europe would be unlikely to invest in defense mechanisms that could be deployed around the world to protect democracies as the United States does, countries such as the State of Israel would be in very grave danger. The European mindset has been focused on the theory that if the west hands Israel over to Islam that global peace will emerge. If the Euro becomes the currency of choice for oil markets, Israel’s fate would be sealed.

This plan has to varying degrees already been set into motion. Hugo Chavez has called for a reduction in OPEC output by 500,000 barrels per day. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran has already announced Iranian intentions to shift oil currency markets in favor of the Euro, replacing the US dollar. China has announced that it will begin reducing its investment footprint in the US dollar and dump dollars on Forex to reinvest in other devices such as precious metals and Euros.

All taken together, a US defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan, a hostile fundamentalist Islamic coup of Lebanon and a hostile takeover of Iraq by Shiite political forces could remove the United States from the Middle East for decades. If that potential future is combined with an attack upon the US dollar, the United States would be removed from the global stage as the only super power. European currency markets would flourish and European nation-states would avoid expenditures in military programs, allowing fundamentalist Islam to march where it decides to unopposed. Fundamentalist Islam would first liquidate the State of Israel and protect European markets where its oil revenues were invested in Euros. Europe would watch the destruction of the State of Israel as a measure to see “global peace”, while at the same time hoarding oil revenues invested in its markets for socialist programs instead of global security.

Israel, the United States, and every non-hostile Arab and non-Arab state in the Middle East that is allied with the United States would fall under attack in an attempt to absorb those states in the fundamentalist Islamic model. The United States will find it difficult to motivate the American people to go to the defense of these countries since Americans could very likely be paying $5.00 - $10.00 or more per gallon of gasoline in the near future.

The outcome then, if this occurs, is a remaking of the global order, a shift from western civilization to that of fundamentalist Islam and anti-American cronies such as Hugo Chavez would assist those states in spreading totalitarianism throughout the world, as Chavez is attempting to do in Central and South America in alignment with Cuba. This potential future may also be why China is building a huge navy, so the Chinese can guard their oil shipment purchases from the Middle East if the United States no longer has the resources to do so with the American navy since the generous American position was always one to protect international trade routes.

Christopher Farmer

MS, National Security

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