The Correct Equation

The Correct Equation

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

The correct equation is the balanced equation. Given Ayman al-Zawahiri’s extensive civilian education and as founder of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, it would be wise not to discount any material that he distributes via the Internet. We are talking about an individual that is more important to al Qai’da operations than 100 Usama Bin Ladins. In any terrorist organization there eventually will arise a figurehead to take command. Usama Bin Ladin, while exposed to tactical military operations during the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, is not an organizer like Ayman al-Zawahiri. Ayman al-Zawahiri can be best described as a Chief of Staff for international terrorist organizations because he was the individual that brokered a unification of transnational terrorism amongst varied and divergent terrorist groups. In sum, he is the brains behind the al Qai’da operation and it would be a tremendous miscalculation to underestimate this man.

So what is in store for the United States as Ayman al-Zawahiri explained it in his new video released today? Ayman al-Zawahiri directly challenged the US decision to send more soldiers to Iraq claiming that even if the United States sent an additional 150,000 soldiers, the end result would be the same. Al-Zawahiri claimed in his video that US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were “already defeated” and that there were “surprises” to come.

One such surprise occurred yesterday when terrorist forces belonging to Ansar al Sunnah expertly fabricated a diplomatic convoy mission to penetrate a US military base in Karbala. The terrorists managed to gather enough US uniforms and equipment, the fabrication of personnel documents and identification cards and placards for vehicles, and even gathered enough personnel that spoke English to penetrate a highly secure US forward base in Iraq. Once inside the base after crossing through 3 separate checkpoints designed to prevent such action, the terrorists dismounted from the 7-vehicle convoy in numbers estimated to be at least 30 enemy personnel and began to fire up the base with their automatic weapons. The terrorists made a point not to engage any Iraqi personnel in the base and only targeted US soldiers, killing 5 US service members and wounding an unknown number of others.

That is indicative of an inside job all the way. It is unthinkable that Iraqi personnel would not fire a single round in defense of the US soldiers in the base that were under attack, and the Iraqis that were in the base claimed that they thought that US forces were fighting amongst each other and so they decided to stay out of the fight. Beyond being the most ridiculous excuse ever experienced by US commanders on the ground in Iraq, the attack illustrates that perhaps large segments of the Iraqi force cannot be categorized as anything other than disloyal. This attack is a very dangerous precedent.

Moving beyond that and back to al-Zawahiri’s new video, OPORD Analytical believes from examining the video that al Qai’da is activating a terrorist strike against US Navy ships somewhere in the Red Sea or at port in Yemen. Such a strike would balance out the equation of the US buildup in the region and al Qai’da’s strategic goal would be to create an Arizona Memorial type situation involving the US Navy, given the structure of al-Zawahiri’s video segments if they are examined carefully. OPORD Analytical believes that any attack, should it occur, would take place Southeast in the Red Sea along the coast of Yemen or Saudi Arabia.

OPORD Analytical concludes that US Navy personnel and ships in the region should greatly increase their security and force protection posture.

Negotiators in Egypt have leaked that the State of Israel has been in secret negotiations with Palestinian authorities in order to come to an agreement in the handing over of the West Bank by the State of Israel in the near future.

Israel is now negotiating under the premise that the United States will soon be seeking to exit Iraq and the State of Israel is concerned about what will happen next if that should occur. By negotiating a return of the West Bank to the divided Palestinian government prior to any US exit from Iraq, Israel could claim that it was seeking conflict resolution before the Jihadi effort relocates from Iraq to Lebanon to attack Israel.

It is anticipated that over 1,000,000 supporters of Hezbollah and Syria will descend upon Lebanon this week to protest the democratic government in a new phase of Islamic protests designed to secure gains that are emerging from reduced American political will to confront Islamic extremism in Iraq.

These combined efforts by Islamic factions are set to force a final confrontation with the State of Israel.

Christopher Farmer

MS, National Security

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